Actscelerate.com

48-Yr Growth Chart: COG Decline or Not. You Decide

Acts-celerate Owner Posts: 6957 **7/22/12 11:47 pm**

48 YEARS OF CHURCH OF GOD U. S. GROWTH
*See detailed stats chart below:

Note: If there's a problem with how the many numerical values display on your screen, email me at: writedoyle@yahoo.com and I'll forward the spreadsheet. Stats are rounded to the nearest whole number. We began with 1962 since that was the first year the U. S. and Canada stats were listed separately.

USING OFFICIAL STATISTICS garnered by ACTS viewers from "Church of God Assembly Minutes," we've set out to develop as complete a history of COG growth as possible. In addition, we seek to present the research in the most positive way possible. We're not attempting to spin the statistics either way but where possible, to find good news to share about the increase in the number of COG congregations, the steady year-by-year growth in membership totals and the average membership growth per church.

BASING one's evaluation of progress on membership can have it's limitations. Actual attendance is a more solid way to determine whether things are growing or not. In most cases, year-after-year, when it comes to membership totals, there is only addition. Members who have died, moved away, joined other denominations and haven't attended in 30 years, still count in the local church membership total. A church may be showing 800 members with only a hundred in actual attendance as happened to a Minister friend who took a church to pastor. If we totaled our bank accounts in the same way churches and denominations tabulate membership, only deposits and almost no disbursements would show on our bank statements.

"I'm really rich!" one could exclaim when looking at that impressive total in a 50-year bank account where only deposits were recorded and disbursements were not mentioned.

MUCH TO REJOICE ABOUT BUT TRENDS BRING CONCERN

First, the Church of God may have shown an increase in every year except possibly one since its first official meeting nearly 110 years ago in 1903 when 10 people met in the incredibly ramshackle Western NC mountain cabin of W. F. Bryant. The only year we're not sure of at this time is 1923 when there was a “split” and 1924 when the results of the split would have shown up in the records. We're searching for the stats from those years and possibly viewers have a copy of the “Assembly Minutes” report from them. Back then, the General Assembly was held every year.

Even so, that "split" was among Brothers who are branches from the same tree, so technically, in my opinion, they should be included in COG statistics for those years of 1923, 1924.

So, viewers can indeed see there is much to rejoice about in the overall picture of historical COG growth. There are however some concerns since the year 2000. A 48-year growth chart below shows yearly membership increases holding fairly steady, but in 2000, the increase in the number of new churches began to drop dramatically. Let's state that in a different way.

NOT IN DECLINE BUT RAPID SLOWING TREND

Statistics through 2010, show that the COG has not dropped into decline but the increase in the number of new churches has declined significantly. It may sound confusing to some but there is a “decline” in the “increases” the Church has enjoyed throughout it's long history of growth. Those increase-declines are so dramatic until solutions to turn them around must be found to thwart a slide further toward decline.

From the year 2000-2010 there was a total increase of 134 new churches ( Far lower than normal but still an increase) or an average 13.4 increase of new churches per year. Does that mean 6,500 COG congregations combined to start only 13.4 new churches per year 2000-2010, or was there an internal adjustment by officials to remove non-operational churches from the list?

If as we are told that up to 80 percent or more of attendance and membership growth comes from new churches, that declining number of new churches could be problematic for the future growth of the Church.

One of the REALLY POSITIVE things we found is how steadily the average local church membership has grown over the years from 57 members per church in 1962 to an average of 168 in 2010.

WHAT HAPPENED to membership growth in 2010? Why did growth drop so dramatically? Is that a typo in the "Minutes" or did the Executive Committee ask for or approve some churches to clean their rolls of non-active members? We don't know the answer to that but thought viewers may have input. Take a look at the detailed stats below and feel free to share your opinions and evaluations. Sorry for all the dots but using them as spacers is the only way we could post the chart and have it hold together.

CHURCH OF GOD 48-YEAR GROWTH CHART

..........................................................................Member.........Member
..................................................Members...........Increase..........Yearly
Year.......Churches....Members....Per Church.....Per Assembly.....Increase

1962........3,193........181,402.….......57
1964........3,290........195,995............61...............14,593...............7,297
1966........3,707........220,405............59...............24,410.............12,205
1968........3,834........243,532............64...............23,111..............11,559
1970........3,960........262,388............66...............18,485................9,428
1972........4,028........273,621............68...............11,233................5,617
1974........4,333........324,553............74...............50,932..............25,466
1976........4,830........359,632............75................86,011.............43,006
1978........4,853........386,697............80................27,065.............13,533
1980........5,139........427,701............83................41,004.............20,502
1982........5,304........466,638............88................38,937.............19,469
1984........5,353........500,894............94................34,256.............17,128
1986........5,666........542,608............96................41,714.............20,857
1988........5,763........582,203...........101...............39,595.............19,798
1990........5,841........620,393...........106...............38,190.............19,095
1992........5,873........671,479...........114................51,086............25,543
1994........5,913........713,819...........121................42,340............21,170
1996........6,101........773,483...........127................59,664............29,832
1998........6,271........831,248...........133................57,765............28,883
2000........6,408........887,148...........138................55,900............27,950
2002........6,597........938,617...........142................51,469.............5,734
2004........6,488........982,360...........151................43,743............21,872
2006........6,595.....1,025,896...........156................43,536............21,768
2008........6,661.....1,066,550...........160................40,654............20,327
20010......6,542.....1,069,098...........163..................2,548..............1,274

Doyle
writedoyle@yahoo.com
_________________
The largest room in the world is the room for improvement.

Years Ago

Acts-celerater Posts: 854 **7/23/12 6:23 am**

Several years ago (with a state overseer who is no longer alive) I was in a church averaging 80 and the membership rolls said 180. I decided that I could not, in good conscience, report that membership each month so I decided to track down all members on the rolls to find out if they wanted to remain as members of my church, or if they had joined another church and failed to notify us. Some were dead, some were members of other churches, and some were not serving the Lord. We reached out to all of them, invited them back, tried to lead the lost to the Lord, and asked each of them their wishes as far as remaining members of our church. By the time we were done, there were only 68 members. The state overseer called and challenged me not to purge the rolls, but he could not argue with the process I'd used.

From there I went to another church with an attendance of 100 and a membership of 780. The church was one of the top10 in the state for membership. Before I did anything, the overseer called me and warned me not to purge the rolls. I told him that I would be removing the physically dead people. Also, at one point the state had closed a church on the district and transferred their membership to the church I was now at. The problem was that they simply added 35 as a number with no names. What do you do with that? After a vain attempt to find the names to go with the numbers, we removed 35 from our rolls. By the time I was done we had about 300 members, some of which started returning when after we reached out to them. The overseer was not happy, but I simply could not ethically sign a report with 780 members knowing that it was not true.

In short, membership numbers in the COG are generally inflated. However, there are some churches with more in Sunday morning attendance than there are on the rolls, so maybe it all averages out in the end.
_________________
Mark E. Hardgrove, D.Min., Ph.D.
Senior Pastor Conyers Church of God
http://www.conyerscog.org
Dean & VP for Academics at BHU
http://www.beulah.org/

Is God happy with that?

Bound By Beaulah Posts: 1003 **7/23/12 6:34 am**

Great post Mark. I found the very same thing at the church I pastored and did the very same thing. Alot of people were not happy when I announced that they would be removed. I heard the same thing; " Every Body is doing it', that is the way it has always been done. My question has always been; " Is God pleased with our traditon"?? I know He is not! And secondly does our tradition line up with the Word of God? No!

Golf Cart Mafia Associate Posts: 2118 **7/23/12 7:51 am**

Maybe a formal membership roll should be re-evaluated???

Not sure that's the answer, just asking the question more than anything. I was so used to how we did the membership vs. attendee thing in the Baptist and COG, that when I came into the present fellowship I'm in, I was surprised that most Oneness churches do not do formal membership.

If you attend there on a regular basis, you go on the church roll. As long as you are financially supporting the church, supporting in your attendance, you are considered a "member" of the church. Every Sunday someone takes attendance, in larger churches, it's divided among different members of leadership.

In most churches, after 1 month of absence with no known reason (sickness, working, etc), you are put on the inactive list. Not counted as an active member, and not provided on the church roll when turned in to headquarters at General Assembly in September.

This works quite well because...

1. Allows the Pastor to keep a more accurate roll.
2. Keeps the attendance more in sync with the membership roll.
3. Makes the leadership of the local church take attendance every Sunday and to follow up with everyone on the list.
4. Keeps us from huge dips in numbers from large purge efforts to clean up outdated membership rolls.

It's not perfect, no system is, but it does help our numbers to be more realistic.
_________________
Rev. C. Todd Robbins
Evangelist - Emmanuel Churches of Christ

The Greatest Risk... is the Risk of Regret...

Acts-dicted Posts: 8065 **7/23/12 9:16 am**

Doyle,

Thank you for sharing this. You could replace the CoG's name with all other Pentecostal denominations' names and i would be the same story I'm afraid.

May I share this article with others?
_________________
"It is doubtful if any Trinitarian Pentecostals have ever professed to believe in three gods, and Oneness Pentecostals should not claim that they do." - Daniel Segraves UPCI

Acts Enthusiast Posts: 1449 **7/23/12 9:26 am**

Inspiredhillbilly wrote:

"It's not perfect, no system is, but it does help our numbers to be more realistic."

Your method is much better than COG. GA minutes have suggested salary for pastors based on membership. The higher the membership the greater chance in getting a raise.

Golf Cart Mafia Associate Posts: 2118 **7/23/12 9:43 am**

Golf Cart Mafia Underboss Posts: 3944 **7/23/12 10:19 pm**

Most impressive thing I have seen you post, Brother Hardgrove, and I have enjoyed a bunch of your stuff. Reminds me of a Bible story, but it would make some folks mad if I said which one.

New Member Posts: 19 **7/27/12 8:14 am**

If the numbers are true we have a problem. Either people are leaving in large numbers, or as we see almost 100 churches have closed or left, or we are no longer as great as we once were? Now that sounds mean, but are we relevant today since so many of our policies are still stuck in the 1950's? Whatever the reason we must find a solution and fix it, no longer plugging holes.
_________________
Sanctified Bishop

Acts Enthusiast Posts: 1924 **7/27/12 1:37 pm**

Under previous administrations at this church it almost seemed if someone signed a visitors card they were added as a member!

We voted in a new pastor some time ago. Upon his arrival I explained what had been happening. He immediately told the Elder's Council that he would be working to purge the membership roll.

We went from well over 500 down to 168. We sent a letter of explanation both to the State Offices and to HQ. Beyond the AB questioning whether our Pastor would have his salary cut or not nothing else was said about it. (And no, we didn't cut his salary and, in fact he has received several raises over the years.)

I believe that Pastors would not see their salaries cut if they had an honest discussion with their local boards about doing what is right in the sight of God on reporting the correct numbers.

[Insert Acts Pun Here] Posts: 14803 **7/31/12 2:49 pm**

Impossible to say, because when I look at that chart, I have no way to VISUALLY VERIFY ITS ACCURACY.

Verification

Acts-celerate Owner Posts: 6957 **7/31/12 5:59 pm**

The statistics in the chart are from the "Church of God Assembly Minutes" which means those numbers were placed there by the only people authorized to do so, members of the Executive Committee. I'm not aware of any more credible source than statistics approved and published by COG Headquarters.

Doyle
_________________
The largest room in the world is the room for improvement.

Is membership even a number worth tracking?

Newbie Posts: 6 **7/31/12 8:38 pm**

I've often wondered if membership is really an accurate metric of health for a church and a denomination. For a few reasons...

1. As has been discussed, membership rolls are often inaccurate.
2. It seems that a younger demographic is much less concerned with formal membership.
3. Formalizing oneself as a "member" does not lead them further along in their discipleship process.

It is possible that the metric was valuable in the past but it may no longer be as relevant. When I consider across-the-board health for a church and our denomination, two metrics seem most valuable to me:

1. Weekly Attendance - If the weekend service is our primary environment for experiencing God and His word, this number should matter. I believe churches used to and still may report this number.

2. Involvement - Participation in small groups, classes, volunteer teams, etc. shows "next steps" being taken in one's discipleship process. I believe churches used to and still may report Sunday School and Family Training Hour numbers. While these terms no longer fit many of our churches programs, it might be worth reporting similar weekly numbers.
_________________
Ryan Stigile
Strategic Analyst
Mount Paran Church, Atlanta, GA

@ryanstigile
ryanstigile.com