Actscelerate.com

Golf Cart Mafia Consigliere Posts: 3147 **7/1/16 9:29 am**

BTW - 7 polls came out yesterday. Only one had Trump ahead, one had him within 1, and the others were way ahead for Hillary.

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Clinton 44, Trump 40 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Rasmussen Reports Clinton 39, Trump 43 Trump +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton PPP (D) Clinton 48, Trump 44 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 42, Trump 32 Clinton +10
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Clinton 37, Trump 36, Johnson 9, Stein 5 Clinton +1
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein PPP (D) Clinton 45, Trump 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 42, Trump 31, Johnson 5, Stein 4 Clinton +11

Friendly Face Posts: 496 **7/1/16 9:31 am**

The odds are you will never be polled by a Polling firm. Sometimes candidates will contact many people in their area, particularly if one is a registered member of a party, thus they may not be a statistically valid sample.

Typically, pollsters only select maybe 1,500 people nation wide. Because of how they are selected, they are suppose to be representative of the entire population within a "margin of error", typically maybe 3 to 5 percent. The 1948 election was off substantially due to "polling error" in that I believe they selected people with phone numbers and those people (in 1948) tended to be more well to do, and thus Republican. After that disaster, other methods were developed to improve the sample.

I suspect they may be approaching a similar problem today with the number of people that have cell phones that are not published and don't use land lines.

Obviously, pollsters in Britain either did not select a representative sample, or people were lying to the pollsters. I suspect more and more people are indeed lying to pollsters today, particularly if their view is not politically correct. Another problem with polls is they tend to use "likely voters". Those voters may not end up voting and others may vote that weren't a "likely voter", thus the sample is not correct.

Even with the best statistically accurate poll, errors can occur, thus the margin of error.

To get to your point though, with only 1,500 people selected in the typical nationwide poll, an individual voter will likely never be selected for a poll, but that, in itself, does not invalidate the poll.

The other problem is people change their mind, thus a poll today doesn't mean the same 3 months from now even if the same 1,500 people were selected. If Hillary is indicted (spelling?), the numbers could change dramatically. Goodness, it is even possible indictment may help her numbers if people perceive it is simply political (which is interesting given the AG is democrat). Trump may open his mouth one too many times and lose much of his following.

Of all the reasons polls could be wrong, the fact that a particular person was not selected is not a valid reason for their inaccuracy.

[Insert Acts Pun Here] Posts: 14803 **7/1/16 9:46 am**

I've been polled various times. (I'm home a lot, and I have a landline.) The most recent poll (within the last few days) did ask me about the national candidates, but it seemed to ask more about the state races. It might have been what is known as a "push poll."
Anyway, if someone calls me to poll me, I try to participate. I'm always glad that someone actually seems interested in my opinion.
I get the idea, though, that some of these polls are merely used to find out which topic will be the best one for the candidate to campaign on.

Acts-dicted Posts: 8065 **7/1/16 11:08 am**

Golf Cart Mafia Consigliere Posts: 3147 **7/1/16 11:11 am**

Acts-dicted Posts: 8065 **7/1/16 12:21 pm**

Golf Cart Mafia Consigliere Posts: 3147 **7/1/16 3:28 pm**

Acts-celerater Posts: 651 **7/1/16 4:08 pm**

Acts-dicted Posts: 8065 **7/1/16 4:17 pm**

Golf Cart Mafia Consigliere Posts: 3147 **7/1/16 4:22 pm**

Acts-dicted Posts: 8065 **7/1/16 6:48 pm**

Acts-pert Poster Posts: 16509 **7/1/16 7:17 pm**

"NeverTrump" is no more of a cult than the Trumpsters. One group is anti-Trump and the other is pro-Trump. Why is the anti-Trump group considered cultist?

Acts-dicted Posts: 8065 **7/1/16 8:03 pm**

Golf Cart Mafia Consigliere Posts: 3147 **7/1/16 10:11 pm**

Acts-dicted Posts: 8065 **7/1/16 11:23 pm**

01000001 01100011 01110100 01110011 Posts: 24285 **7/2/16 12:48 am**